Modeling Human Impact on Global Warming

This data on global temperature and efforts to model it is from Emanuel , MIT climatologist, published in the Boston Review. Since global warming is evident, the question of whether that warming is driven by human activities is of utmost importance. The data above show the observed temperature along with two computer simulations of that temperature, one including those influences arising from human activity and the other not. It can be seen that the two computer models diverge in the 1970s and now do not overlap. Emanuel comments "almost all climate scientists today believe that man's influence on climate has emerged from the background noise of natural variability."

这些关于全球温度的数据以及对其建模的努力来自麻省理工学院气候学家埃曼努尔，发表于《波士顿评论》。由于全球变暖已经显现，人类活动是否是导致这种变暖的原因这一问题至关重要。上述数据展示了观测到的温度以及两个计算机模拟的温度，一个包括人类活动产生的影响，另一个则不包括。可以看出，两个计算机模型在1970年代开始出现分歧，现在也不再重合。埃曼努尔评论道：‘几乎所有今天的气候科学家都相信，人类对气候的影响已经从自然变异性背景噪声中显现出来。’

This illustration is constructed with data from Collins, et al., which in turn comes from the IPCC 2007 report. It is clear that the observed warming affects all continents, and that the models that include radiative forcing from human activities predict the observations better.

这张图的数据来自Collins等人，而他们又基于IPCC 2007份报告。显然，观测到的变暖影响了所有大陆，而包含人类活动辐射强迫的模型更能预测观测结果。